"AestheticsInMotion" (aestheticsinmotion)
01/27/2020 at 22:20 • Filed to: None
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"AestheticsInMotion" (aestheticsinmotion)
01/27/2020 at 22:20 • Filed to: None | 4
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The author of the piece is a meteorologist with decades of teaching experience. He also runs a local weather blog that has been nothing short of miraculous these past few years, often bringing a much more detailed and *accurate* prediction compared to the local news forecasters. I’ve come to rely on the blog throughout Seattle’s winter storm season, and as these winters have been getting more and more severe, I can only imagine that I’ll be reading his work even more in the future. As both a writer and researcher, I’d put the guy in the same league as Tyler Rodgeway.
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wafflesnfalafel
> AestheticsInMotion
01/27/2020 at 22:44 |
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wow - um... sh!t... And very interesting - the “euro” model seems to be more accurate around here recently. One more area where we simply choosing to be subpar.
Svend
> AestheticsInMotion
01/27/2020 at 22:46 |
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Intere sting it mentions the UK Met Office a few times but doesn’t mention for a few years, the Met Office supplied weather data for the U.S. east coast.
Just Jeepin'
> AestheticsInMotion
01/27/2020 at 22:59 |
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Thanks, that’s an interesting (and worrisome) read.
It reminded me of this piece, summarizing why Galileo has been so much more troublesome than the U.S. GPS system, essentially mirroring the situation with weather forecasting, but the other way around.
In Europe, responsibility for Galileo is fuzzy and decentralized.
https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/state-of-galileo-and-accident/
DipodomysDeserti
> AestheticsInMotion
01/27/2020 at 23:07 |
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As both a writer and researcher, I’d put the guy in the same league as Tyler Rodgeway.
Seeing as the guy is a professor of atmospheric sciences at a major American university, I’d hope his research skills are a bit better than a very good blogger. Even us Sun Devils expect a bit more from our professors.
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AestheticsInMotion
> Just Jeepin'
01/27/2020 at 23:21 |
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I’m really hoping we get a new space race at the right time to k ickstart a desire for innovation. That’s one kind of patriotism I could happily get behind.
Int eresting about Galileo. Honestly impressive how well it’s done given the way it was started and managed. T his is one case where I think government control and at least initial military prioritization would be for the best. How long did GPS basically have a monopoly on GNSS? I feel like it’s easy to take for granted, but with the exception of Ru ssia, i t’s only recently that other nations’ have begun to put together GNSS. And... Russia had some pretty huge issues with GLONASS from inception to current day .
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AestheticsInMotion
> DipodomysDeserti
01/27/2020 at 23:34 |
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Good point. I probably should have said “writer and educator” instead, as neither of those are a given. Outside of a few crazy M Ds focused on lifting and nutrition, Tyler's work is probably the best that I read *frequently*, so that's my where my bar is
ttyymmnn
> AestheticsInMotion
01/28/2020 at 00:07 |
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Well, when you have an administration that is openly hostile to science, there is little hope that we will improve.
ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com
> AestheticsInMotion
01/28/2020 at 00:31 |
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This is somewhat relevant to my professional interests. The network of weather stations I run for the Flood Commission that make up the flood warning systems outputs to NOAA and the NWS (among other folks). We run two data feeds to them. One goes to NOAA for the research models, and one goes to the local NWS office and into their real time operational forecasting models.
I’ve experienced a bit of their bureaucracy, and it is indeed impressive in all the wrong ways. It was a convoluted process getting added to proper distribution lists for weather data that is distributed to government subscribers and emergency management folks. This is something that should’ve been a simple task, but the process is completely opaque to anyone outside the NWS or NOAA.
That said, it is interesting to get these operational forecast products . They are basically an in depth look at what the various models are forecasting and detailed discussion about how they’re currently thinking about that data and the impacts it can have. There is a contrast between it and the publicly published area forecast discussion (that anyone can get from the website, and is the raw forecast your local news media are using ). They seem to have rules requiring a really high level of certainty to public forecast products, and I think that may make them c onservative in a lot of approaches to what they forecast and when, or at least when they release it . The non-public forecast products exchange some of that certainly for detailed looks at the range of possibilities and their impacts a lot further out than what most folks see.
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DipodomysDeserti
> AestheticsInMotion
01/28/2020 at 00:32 |
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I hear you. If you’re interested in algal bioprocesses and water use in Arizona, I’ve got some killer stuff.
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DipodomysDeserti
> ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com
01/28/2020 at 00:54 |
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Find the oldest guy with the oldest joints in the area, and just use him as a forecaster. I used to use my neighbor, Art, as a barometer. Dude was batting a solid .750. Not sure if the pack of Camels a day helped or hurt.
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ITA97, now with more Jag @ opposite-lock.com
> DipodomysDeserti
01/28/2020 at 09:16 |
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It’s a solid concept. If only the resolution were higher.
I’ve had dogs that got pretty good at that too when they got older.